2024 ended with electronic warfare front and center in both high-end and tactical fights. The Ukraine conflict has continued to act as a rapid innovation loop for EW tactics and low-cost countermeasures, while Western forces keep fielding modernized airborne and space-capable EW systems. These parallel pressures mean 2025 will be a year of consolidation for new techniques, and wider operational experimentation at brigade and theater levels.
Prediction 1: Cognitive EW and AI-driven SIGINT will move from labs to field tools. Expect more machine learning models that perform near-real-time classification of emitters, automated waveform clustering, and faster threat-library updates. These will be integrated into tactical SIGINT toolchains to speed decisions at the unit level, not only in centralized centers. The push is already visible in academic work on ML for radar and modulation recognition and in early government contracts and experiments. Practical result: faster false-alert triage and more automated countermeasure suggestions, but also a need for hardened models against spoofed training data.
Prediction 2: Expect AI to be baked into autonomy for both lethal and non-lethal UAS, making jamming alone less reliable. Ukrainian developers and field reports show a trend toward computer vision and navigation techniques that reduce reliance on GPS and comms links. 2025 will see more drones that can continue missions when links are degraded by jamming, forcing defenders to layer EW with kinetic, cyber, and ISR effects. Operators must treat signal denial as only one axis of defeat.
Prediction 3: Counter-UAS will remain the busiest tactical EW market. Low-cost jammers and anti-drone guns proliferated in 2022–2024 and will be refined in 2025 for better selectivity, geolocation, and integration with C2. The trend is toward distributed defenses that combine cheap point jammers, sensors for attribution, and expendable interceptors. Expect doctrines to move from single-point denial to distributed electromagnetic defense layers.
Prediction 4: Directed energy and HPM systems will get more operational play but remain constrained by ROE, safety, and integration challenges. High-power microwave demonstrators and expeditionary HPM pods have matured to the point of field tests and limited prototype deliveries. In 2025 plan for wider experimentation with HPM for counter-swarm and maritime use at short ranges, with continued caution over collateral electronics effects and rule-of-engagement implications.
Prediction 5: Airborne EW modernization will accelerate force effects and reach. New Compass Call variants and similar platform refreshes are in service or entering training fleets, bringing improved endurance, altitude, and software-defined payloads. That capability growth will be coupled with doctrine updates to integrate airborne EW into joint non-kinetic campaigns. Expect more combined missions where airborne EW enables stand-off effects and creates windows for strike assets.
Prediction 6: Space and SATCOM will be a contested EW frontier. Ground-based counter-communications and remote modular terminals have been under development and procurement to deny or shape adversary SATCOM. In 2025 watch for more routine training and exercises that try to coordinate space EW effects with terrestrial operations, plus growing friction over spectrum and regulatory choices as LEO constellations densify. Planners will need better deconfliction tools to avoid unintended effects on civilian SATCOM.
Prediction 7: Software-defined radios and open-source toolchains will continue to lower the barrier for experimentation while raising legal risks. GNU Radio, inexpensive Lime/HackRF-class hardware and single-board computers are making legitimate R&D and education accessible. That same democratization also means more accidental or intentional misuse, and regulators and marketplaces are already reacting to illegal jammer sales. Civilian hobbyists and small teams should continue safe, legal testing practices and avoid transmitting on protected bands.
Operational implications and recommended actions for 2025: 1) Treat EW as a permanent axis in planning at echelons from company to theater. Train units to operate with intermittent comms and degraded PNT. 2) Invest in integrated sensing and attribution. Simple denial is insufficient; you need fast geolocation and evidence to prioritize effects. 3) Harden ML pipelines. If you deploy AI-assisted EW, add data validation, adversarial testing and fall-back manual controls. 4) Watch spectrum policy. Rapid changes in LEO services and terrestrial spectrum reviews will change the electromagnetic battlespace in ways that affect both military and civilian users. Coordinate with national regulators and industry partners. 5) For hobbyists and researchers: use receive-only experiments where possible, keep transmit power low and on unassigned amateur bands, and follow national rules to avoid fines or equipment seizures. Illegal jammers attract enforcement.
Bottom line: 2025 will be a year of practical integration. The lessons from irregular wars and hobbyist innovation will push EW into more modular, software-defined and AI-augmented forms. That means faster adaptation but also new operational risks. Those who prepare with layered defenses, robust attribution, and cautious AI adoption will gain the edge in the electromagnetic domain.